AIM for Scale Supports Government of Kenya’s New Forecast-to-Farmer Pilot

New Commitment Charter brings together government, technical partners and private sector to test how KMD-authorized sub-seasonal forecasts can reach farmers at scale

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 22, 2026

NAIROBI, KENYA — The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has launched a new Forecast-to-Farmer Pilot to test how improved weather forecasts can be translated into actionable information and delivered to millions of farmers through trusted advisory and communication channels.

At the heart of the pilot is a simple goal: to make better weather forecasts available to more farmers for better-informed decisions. This means providing timely, validated information on aspects such as when seasonal rains are likely to begin, whether dry spells may occur, and how rainfall is expected to unfold. The pilot uses an improved sub-seasonal rainfall forecast product developed by KMD scientists working with the FEWS NET-funded Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara, the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, and Rhiza Research. The approach builds on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (ECMWF AIFS), downscaled to provide more localized information for Kenya. Forecasts are updated daily and extend up to four weeks ahead, including a high-resolution product at approximately five kilometres. Through the pilot, these KMD-authorized forecast products will be made available to participating organizations through an application programming interface (API) gateway for translation into farmer-facing advisories.

The Forecast-to-Farmer Pilot Commitment Charter provides the framework for how this will work in practice. Convened by KMD, it sets out the shared objective and framework for collaboration among organizations participating in the pilot. The arrangement is believed to be the first of its kind in the region, creating a streamlined way for organizations serving millions of farmers to access and share KMD-authorized forecasts while KMD retains oversight of its forecast products.

“Our goal is to ensure that Kenya’s farmers have access to timely, reliable weather information that can help them make better decisions about their farms,” said Mr. Charles Mugah, Deputy Director of Forecasting Services at KMD. “Better forecasts can help farmers anticipate changing conditions and make more informed decisions about when to plant, apply inputs, and manage risks. Through this pilot, we are working to ensure that high-quality forecasts are not only produced, but translated into practical information that farmers can use.”

“KMD is bringing together technical partners, government agencies, and the private sector to create a structured pathway for delivering this information to millions of farmers. The pilot will also help inform our approach to data sharing as we transition to becoming the independent Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA),” added Mr. Frederick Sedah, Assistant Director of Meteorological Services – Projects and Partnerships at KMD.

Advisories will be delivered through existing channels farmers already use and trust, from extension networks and mass media to SMS and other digital services, including: Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation’s Digital Climate Advisory Service (DCAS) supported by TomorrowNow, one of the largest agrometeorological advisory programs in Africa, reaching more than five million farmers; the TUNZA project implemented by FAO and financed by the Green Climate Fund; the Kenya AI-Driven Agricultural Advisory Platform (KAiDAAP) developed by the Strathmore Food Innovation Center (SAFIC); the AI powered advisory services from iSDA’s Virtual Agronomist and Digital Green’s FarmerChat; and the iShamba farmer advisory service reaching more than 500,000 farmers.

“Getting better forecasts into the hands of farmers requires more than advances in forecasting technology,” said Paul Winters, Executive Director of the AIM for Scale Secretariat and Professor at the University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs. “We also need strong public systems that can validate forecasts, translate them into useful advice, and deliver that advice through channels farmers know and trust. This pilot is an important opportunity to learn what it takes to make that entire system work at scale.” AIM for Scale, which is funded by the International Affairs Office of the UAE Presidential Court, the Gates Foundation, and the OpenAI Foundation, is helping with coordination of the pilot with support from C4Impact Advisory Services.

The 2026 October-December short rains will serve as a proof of concept, including testing with farmers to ensure weather information is clear, relevant, and useful. Dissemination will move to a larger scale during the 2027 March–May long rains, when KMD expects to begin operationalizing the new forecasting approach, combining AI-based forecasting with conventional numerical weather prediction.

“No single organization can bridge the gap between advances in weather forecasting and the decisions farmers make in their fields,” said Ani Ghosh, Senior Scientist at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. “This pilot brings together KMD’s public mandate, technical partners and established farmer-facing networks needed to test how better forecasts can be translated and delivered at scale.” The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT is supporting pilot coordination, data sharing, and technical support for dissemination.

The pilot will generate practical evidence on how forecast data can be shared, translated into agricultural guidance, and delivered through different channels at scale, including what farmers find useful and what works operationally at scale. These lessons will inform KMD’s longer-term approach to providing climate and weather services to farmers across Kenya.

The charter has been endorsed by the following organizations to date:

• ADAPT – Kenya

• AIM for Scale

• C4Impact Advisory Group

• Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara

• Digital Green

• Food and Agriculture Organization

• International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)

• iSDA – Africa

• iShamba Limited

• Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

• Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation (KALRO)

• Precision Development (PxD)

• Rhiza Research

• Strathmore Agri-Food Innovation Centre

• The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT

• TomorrowNow.org