On 19 November at COP30, AIM for Scale and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) co-organized a panel discussion focused on the important interplay between global, regional, and national institutions in delivering timely, actionable weather and climate information to farmers. The discussion brought together:

• Paul Winters, Executive Director, AIM for Scale (moderator)
• Ousmane Ndiaye, Director-General, ACMAD
• Albert Fischer, Director, WIGOS Division, WMO
• Qingfeng Zhang, Senior Director for Agriculture, Food, Nature, and Rural Development Office, ADB
• Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Director, Adaptive and Equitable Food Systems, Gates Foundation
• Maja Schling, Senior Economist, IDB

Speakers emphasized that strengthening climate services for agriculture requires collaboration across the entire climate information ecosystem—from the global scientific standards set by WMO, to the regional coordination provided by ACMAD, to country-level implementation led by government and supported by AIM for Scale. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) play a central role in financing and embedding these systems sustainably, while donor partners such as the Gates Foundation are unlocking new investments in AI-powered data, benchmarking for accuracy, and last-mile delivery approaches that can ensure millions of farmers benefit.

People-Centered Climate Services

A core theme throughout the session was that the effectiveness of climate services depends on understanding and responding to farmers’ realities. Weather information only becomes valuable when it is:

• delivered at the right time,
• through the right channels,
• in the right formats,
• and aligned with the decisions farmers must make.

Speakers emphasized that messaging must be people-centered and grounded in human-centered design. The “last mile”—ensuring National Meteorological and Hydrological services (NMHSs) and agricultural extension systems can reach farmers with practical, local guidance—is where climate services succeed or fail. Trust is also essential: in many communities, weather understanding has been passed down for generations, and new tools take time—often multiple seasons—to gain acceptance. While emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence played a prominent role in the discussions, panelists underscored that technology on its own is insufficient. They stressed the importance of farmer engagement and co-production to ensure that services genuinely address farmers’ decision-making needs and help build lasting confidence and partnerships.

Connecting Global Models to Local Realities

Panelists underscored that no single institution can deliver farmer-relevant climate services alone. Instead, impact emerges when each level of the system plays its role:

Global Level (WMO)

WMO provides the backbone for climate and weather services through its global  standards for observation (WIGOS), its data-sharing infrastructure (WIS), and its global and regional data-processing system (WIPPS). These systems, along with WMO’s  scientific frameworks, support both traditional physics based forecasting and new AI-enabled tools. Close coordination with NMHSs ensures that programmes remain aligned with WMO priorities, member needs, and ongoing initiatives, particularly in advancing the use of climate services within the agriculture sector.

Regional Level (ACMAD)

ACMAD’s role in harmonizing regional knowledge, fostering data sharing, and connecting NMHSs across Africa is critical for scaling best practices across borders. As WMO’s designated Regional Climate Center for Africa, ACMAD serves as a key driver in advancing and supporting these collective efforts.

National Level (Governments with AIM for Scale Support)

In collaboration with partners like University of Chicago’s Human-Center Forecasts Initiative and Precision Development, AIM for Scale works directly with governments to embed innovations—such as AI-powered weather services—into national programs, strengthen institutions, and help countries deliver tailored guidance to farmers.

Speakers agreed that embedding AI within government systems, not in parallel structures, is essential for long-term sustainability.

Investing in Accuracy, Delivery, and Evidence

The Gates Foundation highlighted three key investment areas shaping the next generation of climate services:

1. AI-powered and inclusive data systems to improve the precision and accessibility of forecasts.
2. Rigorous benchmarking to evaluate real-world model performance across East and West Africa and ensure tools reflect local conditions.
3. Innovations in dissemination, including A/B testing across SMS, voice, apps, radio, and intermediaries to understand what actually drives farmer behavior.

Panelists emphasized that impact evaluation is non-negotiable. Understanding whether farmers are using information—and how it affects their decisions—allows institutions to refine delivery approaches and build evidence for scale.

Strengthening Institutions and Policies for Scalable, Sustainable Systems

Several speakers addressed a persistent barrier: fragmentation within government systems. Meteorological agencies, agriculture ministries, digital transformation units, and extension networks often work in parallel, leading to gaps in data flow and inconsistent messaging.

To overcome this, the panel highlighted the need for:

• Inter-ministerial coordination and shared standards
• Clear data-sharing policies across government agencies
• Consistent, reliable national forecasting systems and delivery infrastructure
• Capacity strengthening for meteorological and agricultural institutions
• Standardized forecasting methodologies to ensure consistent, actionable outputs

Better alignment among government actors is essential for scaling innovations to reach millions of farmers in an efficient and unified way.

Scaling What Works: A Shared Imperative

Across all institutions represented, there was consensus that scale matters. Reaching tens of thousands of farmers is not enough to meaningfully improve food security or climate resilience. AI-powered forecasts, integrated climate services, coproduction to ensure services respond to the real decision needs of farmers and innovative dissemination tools must reach millions—ideally hundreds of millions—to match the scale of the challenges ahead.

The COP30 discussion made clear that scaling is possible when:

• Global scientific leadership
• Regional coordination structures
• National government implementation mechanisms
• Sustainable financing from multilateral development banks
• And catalytic donor support

are aligned toward a common goal.

Looking Ahead

As climate risks intensify, the need for timely, accurate, farmer-centered climate services will only grow. WMO, ACMAD, and AIM for Scale are committed to advancing this work—together with governments, multilateral development banks, research institutions, and donors—to ensure that the world’s farmers have the information they need to make informed decisions, adapt to a changing climate, and strengthen their livelihoods.

The path forward is clear: stronger coordination, smarter technology, more robust institutions, and a relentless focus on farmers. With these elements in place, climate services can move from isolated innovations to national programs capable of delivering impact at scale.

In an article titled “AI models ace their predictions of India’s monsoon rains,” The Economist spotlights India’s pioneering use of artificial intelligence to forecast the monsoon—an initiative that delivered AI-powered rainfall predictions to 38 million farmers this year. The article highlights how machine learning is transforming one of the world’s most complex weather systems into actionable information for farmers. AIM for Scale provided catalytic support to scientific partners leading this work.

AIM for Scale’s Weather Forecast for Farmers Technical Panel member Pedram Hassanzadeh is quoted in the piece, emphasizing the potential for AI to “democratize weather forecasting” by reducing dependence on expensive supercomputers and data-intensive models.

Building on this success, AIM for Scale aims to extend farmer-centered weather forecasting to 11 additional countries by 2030.

Read the full article HERE.

AIM for Scale, the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, and the University of Chicago, have launched a first-of-its-kind weather forecast training program to help governments deliver tailored forecasts to meet local agricultural needs—including those of millions of farmers.

Just as climate change brings extreme and unpredictable weather to communities worldwide, advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are making it possible to predict these shifting conditions with greater speed, lower cost, and hyper-local precision. This breakthrough promises to extend accurate forecasting to regions that have historically lacked access to advanced technologies. Supported by the Agricultural Innovation Mechanism for Scale (AIM for Scale), a collaboration of researchers from the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI) and the University of Chicago are working to ensure that governments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) can adopt these innovations early and build world class national services—delivering services once limited to places like the US, EU, or Japan.

“AI weather models are revolutionizing what can be done with forecasts, but because they are a new type of technology, governments often lack the training, hardware, and institutional capacity to build and use them effectively. If we don’t act, low- and middle-income countries risk being left behind,” says Pedram Hassanzadeh, associate professor in Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago and member of AIM for Scale’s Technical Panel on Weather Services for Farmers. “We’re working to ensure these countries can harness these innovations—taking cutting-edge AI and climate science from the lab to the field.”

The pioneering program–funded by a grant provided by the International Affairs Office at the Presidential Court of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)–is training staff from national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) and ministries of agriculture across low-and-middle-income countries on how to use AI weather forecasting models that are tailored to their specific needs. Their first cohort—from Bangladesh, Chile, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—are being trained September 22-26 in the UAE, hosted by MBZUAI and the National Center of Meteorology. In the years ahead, additional rounds will expand to 25 more countries–reaching a total of 30 and further broadening reach and impact to potentially millions more farmers. AIM for Scale is working on the ground with development partners to ensure this effort is scalable, inclusive, and delivers real impact for farmers.

“Accurate, high-quality forecasts can unlock better yields, higher incomes, and stronger livelihoods for farmers,” says Paul Winters, Executive Director of AIM for Scale and Professor of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs. “By pairing AI innovation with practical agricultural decision-making, we’re creating opportunities for millions of farmers to prosper.”

Fundamental to the program, the team is engaging ministries of agriculture to ensure forecasts can be tailored to the needs of smallholder farmers who are most vulnerable to weather risks. The power of AI is not only in extending access to the types of gold-standard forecasts available in the world’s most well-resourced NMHSs, but also in enabling those forecasts to be generated directly “in-house” by NMHSs at lower cost and with greater accuracy on timelines–from days to weeks—that matter most for farm management. For example, advanced knowledge of the start of the rainy season can help farmers plan what crops to plant and when. Equally important, however, are reliable short-term forecasts that guide day-to-day decisions about irrigation, fertilizer use, or labor. By partnering with ministries of agriculture, a feedback loop can be created: ministries help inform and guide model development to ensure forecasts meet needs on the ground, while improved forecasts in turn guide farmers to make more impactful decisions.

“From weather data to model verification and downscaling, this training covers the key dimensions of AI-powered weather forecasting that enable farmers to plan under uncertainty,” says Souhaib Ben Taieb, Associate Professor of Statistics and Data Science at MBZUAI. ”It demonstrates how frontier AI research can translate into practical solutions for global challenges like food security.”

The training combines technical expertise with hands-on capacity building, giving national meteorological teams the tools and autonomy to generate and deliver tailored forecasts and ensuring this information reaches farmers. Along with technical guidance and capacity building, the training solves another handicap: a lack of hardware. The program provides high-performance multi-GPU laptops to each participant so they can apply and sustain their training back in their home countries. With the right training and deployment, countries that once lagged behind can now match—and even surpass—the world’s leaders in forecast production.

Alongside AIM for Scale, MBZUAI, UChicago and, NCM, the partnership is convening experts from leading global institutions, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Google DeepMind and Google Research, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), AfriClimate AI, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, and Precision Development (PxD), among others.

“This training is a powerful example of how AI can be operationalized for the global good,” says Amir Jina, assistant professor at UChicago’s Harris School of Public Policy and Chair of AIM for Scale’s Technical Panel. “For the first time in history, there is a real prospect of democratizing access to world-leading forecasts, with low- and middle-income countries able to build national services that meet the same gold standard as the most advanced countries.”

In late September, AIM for Scale convened a first-of-its-kind AI Weather Forecasting for Agriculture Training Program in collaboration with the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI) and the University of Chicago (UChicago), bringing together representatives from national meteorological and agricultural agencies from Bangladesh, Chile, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. By supporting low- and middle-income country (LMIC) governments to build their capacity to generate and deliver AI-powered weather forecasts, this program marked a pivotal step toward sustainably reaching millions of farmers with timely information to guide critical decisions affecting their livelihoods. It also underscored the importance of ensuring LMIC governments can adopt these innovations early and develop world-class national services—capabilities once limited to places like the US, EU, or Japan.

As Amir Jina, Chair of AIM for Scale’s Weather Services for Farmers Technical Panel and assistant professor at UChicago’s Harris School of Public Policy noted: “For the first time in history, there is a real prospect of democratizing access to world-leading forecasts. Low- and middle-income countries can now build services that meet the same gold standard as the most advanced nations.”

Why AI Weather Forecasts Matter
For all farmers–but smallholder farmers in particular–weather represents a key risk that can make or break an agricultural season. Yet, in many LMICs, access to timely and accurate weather remains limited with traditional forecasting systems often out of reach to meteorological agencies due to their costs. AI is opening new possibilities: faster, more precise, and more affordable forecasts that can be tailored to local conditions and tailored to farmers’ needs.

“Before this program, I didn’t know what AI really was. Now I see how it can help us improve forecasts and support farmers to produce more,” said A.K.M. Nazmul Hoque from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

A First-of-Its-Kind Training
The five-day program was structured around both technical and applied tracks.

Meteorological service participants learned how to run and evaluate AI models, benchmark their accuracy, and integrate them alongside conventional forecasting systems.
Agriculture ministry participants focused on translating forecasts into actionable advice, ensuring that climate information reaches farmers through extension systems, mobile tools, and advisory platforms.
In addition to the program’s organizers, sessions were led by experts from leading global institutions, including the UAE National Center of Meteorology, the World Meteorological Organization, Google DeepMind and Google Research, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, AfriClimate AI, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Rhiza Research, and Precision Development (PxD), among others.

Each participant left not only with new skills but also with a high-performance laptop, enabling them to continue running AI models in their offices back home.

Learning From Each Other
One of the most powerful aspects of the program was the exchange of experiences across countries. Participants were able to see how peers were approaching common challenges—whether it was Bangladesh’s disaster protocols to quickly coordinate evacuation activities based on flood risk alerts, Kenya’s farmer registry and planting-window tools, or Chile’s work on risk platforms that combine climate and disaster data.

As Jose Abel Echeverria Morales of Chile’s Institute for Agricultural Development put it: “The surprising thing about this week was seeing how fast AI is advancing—and how it can help us get the right message to farmers at the right time. It was amazing to learn from countries that are so different from us, yet share the same vulnerabilities.”

The training closed with a session dedicated to creating a community of practice: a cross-country network where participants can continue sharing knowledge, comparing results, and supporting each other as they integrate AI forecasting into national systems. This collaborative spirit is at the heart of AIM for Scale’s vision—building not just stronger forecasts, but stronger institutions and partnerships that ensure those forecasts reach the farmers who need them most.

Looking Ahead
This inaugural cohort—funded through a grant from the International Affairs Office at the Presidential Court of the United Arab Emirates—marks the start of a multi-year journey. By 2027, AIM for Scale aims to train a total of 30 countries to operationalize AI weather forecasting, equipping national institutions to provide more reliable, farmer-focused forecasts. Together, these efforts could reach tens of millions of farmers, helping them manage weather-related risks more effectively, make informed decisions, and strengthen their livelihoods.

The Conversation recently published an article by Paul Winters, Executive Director of AIM for Scale and Professor at the University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs, and Amir Jina, Chair of AIM for Scale’s Weather Forecasts for Farmers Technical Panel and Assistant Professor of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. The piece explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping weather forecasting — and what that means for farmers around the world.

Winters and Jina explain that while traditional, physics-based forecasting models require costly supercomputers and have been designed primarily for high-income regions, new AI-powered models such as GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, and FourCastNet can deliver accurate, localized forecasts in seconds on a laptop. This shift creates new opportunities for national meteorological services in low- and middle-income countries to provide farmers with timely, actionable forecasts at a fraction of the cost.

The authors emphasize that technology is only part of the solution. For AI weather forecasts to improve farmer resilience, they must be tailored to local conditions, validated against agricultural realities, and delivered in ways that inform real decisions — from planting schedules to fertilizer use to preparing for dry spells.

They highlight AIM for Scale’s work with governments and development partners to ensure AI forecasting tools are designed with farmers’ needs at the center. By building local capacity and connecting forecasts to decision-making, these efforts can reach millions of farmers, improving yields, incomes, and resilience.

Read the full article HERE.

Baku, 13 November 2024: At the COP29 World Leaders Climate Action Summit, the Agriculture Innovation Mechanism for Scale (AIM for Scale) unveiled its first-ever, groundbreaking Innovation Package, aimed at providing weather information to help farmers adapt to the impacts of climate change. Future Innovation Packages will expand efforts to scale additional solutions addressing the interconnected challenges of climate change, food security, and agriculture. 

AIM for Scale, in partnership with the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security, and Agriculture, designed an Innovation Package to empower the generation and dissemination of weather forecasts to hundreds of millions of farmers. The Package recognizes the transformative potential of AI-supported weather forecasting to help national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) produce high-quality, farmer-centered forecasts. Co-producing and disseminating these forecasts to millions of farmers can build resilience and support adaptation as climate change makes weather patterns less predictable. This process will build on previous efforts and consider varying needs across countries, while emphasizing gender equity and inclusion to ensure broad and equitable impact. 

A consortium of global partners has committed to mobilizing significant investments over the next three years to drive the implementation of the AIM for Scale Weather Package. Highlights of these announcements include: 

Following on its food security ambition during 2022–2025, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) will invest approximately $300 million in advanced weather forecasts tailored for the needs of farmers in Asia and the Pacific as part of ADB’s portfolio of food security operations during 2025-2027. ADB also announced a $600,000 technical assistance grant to facilitate the investment. Food security is a top priority under ADB’s updated Strategy 2030. 

The Inter-American Development Bank expects to leverage weather forecasts in its portfolio of $280 million in loans in the coming three years and announced that it has programmed $600,000 of grant resources to support countries to introduce AI-based weather forecasts tailored to farmers’ needs in the IDB´s agriculture lending portfolio in Latin America and the Caribbean. 

The World Bank is currently investing $1.46 billion in Data, Digital Agriculture and Innovations investments that align with the AIM for Scale Weather Package. These investments, of which about $591 million are in the Africa region, support georeferenced farmer registries, soil information systems, climate smart advisories, early warning systems, and pest diagnostic, and will provide the ideal vehicle to transmit high-quality, timely weather information to millions of Africa farmers.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and NASA, working with Congress and through the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for Adaptation and Resilience (PREPARE), announced plans to expand the SERVIR program to Central America, investing $6.6 million in the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE). The new regional hub will launch in early December. SERVIR uses satellite data and geospatial technologies to expand access to early warning systems helping communities prepare and adapt to extreme weather events. The new SERVIR Central America Hub will collaborate with local, national, and regional partners to bolster the resilience of more than 40 million people, including 11 million people directly employed in agriculture. 

The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare of India plans to digitally deliver weather forecasts to tens of millions of farmers, building on a successful initiative that reached 9.45 million in 2024. 

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Community Jameel announced the scale-up of the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet, using climate modeling, research and technological innovation to initially support 8 million smallholder farmers in Bangladesh at risk from climate change, in collaboration with BRAC. 

The Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI) and the University of Chicago’s Human-Centered Weather Forecasts and AI for Climate (AICE) initiatives, in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF), launched a research and training program to improve access to high-quality, farmer-centered AI-supported predictions in more than 30 LMICs. The program will leverage SOFF’s Peer Advisor Network to provide continued support to NMHS. 

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will provide guidance and technical assistance on weather observation, data management and exchange, forecasting, and agrometeorological weather and climate service development and delivery. 

The United Nations Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) committed to support countries, in particular Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries, to close today’s significant weather and climate data gaps through the long-term grant financing and peer-to-peer technical assistance. 

Her Excellency Dr. Amna al Dahak, Minister for Climate Change and Environment of the UAE, welcomed the launch of AIM for Scale following the achievements of the AIM for Climate platform, saying: “Only three years ago at COP26, the UAE and the United States of America launched AIM for Climate to mobilize investments in food systems innovation worldwide. Our success has been truly transformative. Today, with the launch of AIM for Scale, we are accelerating our efforts to find highly promising, climate-friendly agricultural innovations and breaking down barriers to their scaling.” 

In prepared remarks regarding the announcement, Her Excellency Mariam Almheiri, Head of the International Affairs Office at the Presidential Court of UAE, emphasized the importance of international collaboration: “The UAE’s partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was launched to mobilize actions like the AIM for Scale Weather Package announced at COP29.

Through this partnership, we seek to accelerate food systems transformation and climate action. Many innovations have the potential to improve the lives and livelihoods of climate-vulnerable people, but additional coordination and targeted investments are necessary to transition them to scale.” 

Professor Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization welcomed the partnership, noting: “More and better data leads to better weather forecasts, early warning systems and climate information services for agriculture and other vital economic sectors. Closing basic data gaps will also help inform AI models.” Professor Saulo added that “the agriculture sector is undoubtedly one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate variability and change. Additional partnerships are needed to ensure that farmers are involved in the coproduction of weather and climate services which will enhance resilience and adaptation in the agriculture sector.” 

Dr. Abdulla Al Mandous, President of the WMO and Director General of the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) of the UAE, highlighted the importance of providing farmers with weather information: “Today’s launch of the AIM for Scale Weather Package marks a vital step forward in supporting millions of farmers on the front lines of climate change. By improving the reach of accurate, farmer-centered weather forecasts, we can equip vulnerable populations with the information they need to adapt to unpredictable conditions. This initiative underscores the importance of partnerships, technology, and accessible data to build resilience where it’s needed most.” 

Fatima Yasmin, Vice-President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), stated that “ADB, as the climate bank of Asia, recognizes the transformational importance of weather forecasts for advancing climate change adaptation in Asia and the Pacific. In this context, ADB is engaging in this Partnership with the ambition of increasing access to high-quality weather forecasts for any economic sector, and with the objective to scale up and boost evidence-based investments for weather forecasts for farmers and digital agriculture.” 

“Food insecurity and hunger have actually worsened in Latin America and the Caribbean over the past decade. Increasing agricultural productivity, and small farmers’ output in particular, will be a key part in reversing this trend. Providing more accurate and relevant weather forecasting to small farmers will improve decision making around planting, harvesting and fertilizer use, leading to higher incomes and poverty reduction,” said Jordan Schwartz, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Executive Vice President. 

Nobel laureate Michael Kremer, Chair of the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security, and Agriculture and Chair of AIM for Scale’s Advisory Panel, highlighted the significance of these investments: “There is a wealth of evidence that smallholder farmers benefit from high-quality weather forecasts. Yet, the challenge of reaching hundreds of millions of farmers remains. AIM for Scale is a vital step toward filling this gap by leveraging new investments and global partnerships.” 

Regarding the launch of the research and training program to improve access to high-quality, farmer-centered forecasts, Professor Timothy Baldwin, MBZUAI Provost and Professor of Natural Language Processing, noted: “MBZUAI is proud to leverage the potential and power of AI to identify and develop solutions that drive real-world impact. Like many sectors, agriculture is

affected by climate change, and farmers, particularly in the Global South, need urgent and reliable access to data that will inform their decision-making and support national food security agendas. As a leading research university that is dedicated to artificial intelligence, we are committed to supporting improved access to high-quality, AI-supported weather forecasting for farmers in 30 low-and-middle-income countries.” 

Throughout its COP28 Presidency, the UAE has highlighted the power of agricultural innovation as a critical engine to help communities adapt and transform food systems in the face of climate change. Key announcements were made on food security and climate action at COP29’s World Leaders Climate Action Summit as countries sustain momentum implementing the COP28 UAE Declaration on Agriculture, Food Systems, and Climate Action (the Declaration), launched in Dubai by 160 heads of state. 

AIM for Scale, first announced at COP28 as part of a new partnership between the UAE and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is a multi-partner effort to transition evidence-based, cost-effective innovations to scale for the benefit of farmers affected by climate change. 

The Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security, and Agriculture is an independent initiative at the University of Chicago that identifies innovations with rigorous evidence of impact and cost-effectiveness, as well as early-stage innovations with high expected returns, and generates recommendations to transition them to scale.